Last month, when we reviewed our work and reconnected with users and providers, we discovered how the awareness around health hence the demand for healthcare was multiple folds. Even though we had direct exposure with all the stakeholders - we wanted to validate our observations/findings through my best tool: History.
But before I start this post, let me write a quote I loved from the brilliant book - “Enlightenment Now by Steven Pinker” -, and I promise I will connect this quote with the post.
Economists Douglass North, John Wallis, and Barry Weingast argue that the most natural way for states to function, both in history and in many parts of the world today, is for elites to agree not to plunder and kill each other, in exchange for which they are awarded a fief, franchise, charter, monopoly, turf or patronage network that allows them to control some sector of the economy and live off the rents.
Okay, let’s start this post and what we discovered…
The first thing we wanted to understand was the connection between a nation’s GDP per capita and Healthcare per capita. We selected three nations - the USA, China, and India.
- GDP per capita of USA, China, and India: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2022&locations=US-CN-IN&start=2000
India’s GDP per capita in 2024 = $2,840
- Healthcare per capita of USA, China, and India: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PC.CD?locations=US-CN-IN
For the fact that USA and China’s GDP per capita and Healthcare per capita are directly propositional with almost the same growth multiples. This is also true for India however, in the case of India the Healthcare per capita growth multiple is lower which was true for USA and Chain as well when their GDP per capita was lower.
However, once a significant % of the population matures and disposable income brings awareness - the Healthcare per Capita growth would be higher compared to the GDP per capita of a nation. And India is at the same juncture where our Healthcare per capita will grow at a higher rate compared to the GDP per capita of the nation.
Hence we tried a prediction
Let’s assume, India will have a moderate growth rate of 6%. As the current GDP per capita is $2847 by the compound growth rate India will be a $6,844 per capita country in 2035.
Formula: Future Value = Value at present * (1+Growth rate/100)^period)
We could be wrong however, India’s Healthcare per capita would be $224 which is 4X of the current Healthcare per capita.
The growth seems inevitable, the biggest question is what type of companies will capture these values that could probably bring multiple large outcomes following the “Jobs to be done” framework of Healthcare -that I wrote in detail, in my recent essay: https://www.sumanjha.com/post/the-future-of-india-s-healthcare-leapfrogging-india-s-healthcare-part2
PS: I have not forgotten to connect the above quote with this post, I loved that quote so much that I inserted that in this post. There is actually no connection. Apologies